ISTOÉ
O assunto já não é novinho, mas confesso que sofri um certo bloqueio para falar dos julgamentos do STF sobre Lula e a Lava Jato, na semana passada. Eu estava irritado, frustrado, o que pode ser útil para um post nas redes sociais, mas não para o que pretende ser uma coluna de análise política. Quem continua falando quando está irritado acaba soando como Jair Bolsonaro, ou como um ministro do STF batendo boca com os colegas.
Deixei passar o fim de semana, assisti umas séries no Netflix e resolvi recomeçar hoje, voltando aos princípios.
Esta coluna procura sempre expressar um ponto de vista moderado. Isso não significa ficar em cima do muro, nem falar de forma sempre branda e comportada. Se você tiver interesse e paciência, pode dar uma espiada em um texto que escrevi há algum tempo sobre a política da moderação. Mas, para o que interessa neste momento, basta dizer que nada é mais importante na política da moderação do que defender e respeitar as regras do Estado de Direito.
Isso implica fazer um esforço para separar os aspectos jurídicos e políticos do caso de Lula na Lava Jato.
Não é fácil, porque em diversas passagens dessa história parece ter havido uma contaminação do jurídico pelo político. Mas, no fim do dia, é preciso que a gente se contente com isto: os processos cumpriram o seu trajeto e tiveram seu desfecho decidido no plenário do STF, depois dos devidos debates e justificativas.
Não havia nada de inescapável nas decisões tomadas pelo STF nas últimas semanas. Em cada uma delas, o desfecho poderia ter sido diferente. A Lava Jato foi um caso tão grande, tão complexo e tão sem precedentes que muitas teses e muitos consensos mudaram no correr do processo.
A questão da competência da Justiça Federal de Curitiba, por exemplo. Não haveria absolutamente nada de absurdo em concentrar as ações da Lava Jato em Curitiba, uma vez que o esquema de corrupção descoberto pela operação se espraiou por diversas estatais. Há regras de conexão e continência no processo penal que poderiam embasar essa escolha.
No entanto, depois de muita ida e vinda, o STF fechou questão: só crimes ligados à Petrobras seriam julgados na vara de Sérgio Moro. Como já disseram vários ministros, foi uma “construção” que se deu ao longo do tempo. E também não há nada de absurdo nela, mesmo que o resultado tenha sido a anulação dos processos de Lula, por não se haver estabelecido uma ligação direta entre o dinheiro do petrolão e os benefícios supostamente recebidos pelo petista. A tese acata o importantíssimo princípio do juízo natural.
Outro tema: a suspeição de Moro. Ele foi declarado suspeito para julgar Lula por apenas três juízes da Segunda Turma do STF. Edson Fachin levantou uma tese que poderia tornar essa decisão sem efeito, fazendo com que a parcialidade ou imparcialidade de Moro voltasse a ser discutida em outro momento, possivelmente com outro desfecho. O colegiado poderia ter aderido à sua tese. Seria uma decisão legítima.
Mas não foi o que aconteceu. A maioria dos ministros (entre eles, alguns que não considerariam Moro suspeito, se tivessem a oportunidade de votar sobre o assunto) concordou que sentenças proferidas em uma das duas turmas do tribunal, em ações semelhantes, jamais passam por revisão no plenário. Fazer diferente seria dar a Lula um tratamento que outros réus, para o bem ou para o mal, não recebem. São razões sólidas. A suspeição foi mantida, sem discussão de seu mérito. Ponto final.
Sim, tudo poderia ser diferente. Mas as decisões estão aí. Foram tomadas no plenário do STF, com o necessário embasamento. E, repito, isso tem de bastar.
Lula está livre. Nada o impede de participar das eleições de 2022. Digo mais: quase nada o ameaça de ser declarado culpado pelas tramoias do petrolão.
É verdade que o juízo de que Sérgio Moro não foi imparcial ao processar o ex-presidente só vale, por enquanto, para o caso do triplex do Guarujá. Mas são altíssimas as chances de que ele seja estendido aos processos do sítio de Atibaia, do Instituto Lula e do apartamento de São Bernardo.
Pode haver novas ações contra Lula, agora conduzidas pela Justiça Federal em Brasília. Assumindo que a suspeição de Moro seja estendida, no entanto, qualquer novo processo terá de começar do zero. Será difícil, a esta altura do campeonato, coletar evidências de atos praticados vários anos atrás. Ainda que se consiga, a investigação vai demorar bastante. Assim, ficam próximas de 100% as probabilidades de já estarem prescritos os crimes que por acaso sejam atribuídos a Lula, se ocorrer um julgamento.
A Lava Jato morreu para Lula. Ele está livre, e tudo indica que assim vai ficar. Como todo mundo é inocente até que se prove o contrário, ele pode até mesmo se gabar de sua inocência. Nem sequer há processo correndo contra ele.
Mas tudo isso tem a ver com a Justiça. Não é preciso que o mesmo julgamento se aplique à política.
Se hoje não se pode dizer que Lula recebeu propina por meio da reforma de um sítio ou de um apartamento na praia – pois as provas para sustentar essas teses deixaram inclusive de existir para a Justiça – ninguém precisa acreditar que ele não sabia que o PT, que ele controlava com mão de ferro, se beneficiou de um esquema que desviou bilhões de reais da Petrobras. Ninguém precisa acreditar que ele não colheu vantagens políticas desse esquema, nas eleições presidenciais e na manutenção de uma base de apoio no Congresso.
Eu acho que os protagonistas da Lava Jato se perderam a certa altura. O fato de Moro aceitar um cargo de ministro no governo Bolsonaro foi um erro brutal. As conversas entre ele e os procuradores da operação revelam mais do que pecadilhos. Eles parecem ter sido mesmo tomados pela sanha de condenar. A condenação de Lula numa ação capenga como a do triplex não deveria ter acontecido: se não se conseguiu provar o crime, paciência.
Mas isso não significa que Lula, o petista, o chefão de um partido político, seja um pobre de um perseguido. Para o julgamento da política, continuam existindo os milhares de páginas de depoimentos de empreiteiros, todas as anotações do departamento da propina da Odebrecht e documentos afins.
Quem aperta os botões da urna eletrônica não manda ninguém para a cadeia, mas impede que chegue ao poder. Para mim, já é bastante coisa que Lula seja julgado pelas urnas.
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PS: Antes que alguém se confunda, não quero a reeleição de Bolsonaro. Vade retro. Mas também não quero Lula de volta ao Planalto. Vade retro, idem. Se 2022 nos condenar à horrível escolha, voltamos a conversar. Hoje, torço para que surja uma outra opção.
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