Inflação Opinião

Por que a inflação é mais alta no Brasil?

Byvaleon

Ago 12, 2021

  1. Economia     

Praticamente todas as economias vêm pagando o preço do retorno simultâneo do consumo, com o recuo das medidas mais restritivas de distanciamento social, mas no Brasil a inflação avança a passos largos

Celso Ming*, O Estado de S.Paulo

Há algo mais do que tem sido dito e escrito que precisa ser entendido como causa dessa inflação renitente que vai minando a saúde econômica do Brasil.

Os números de julho levantam graves indagações. Foram de avanço do Índice Nacional de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo (IPCA) de 0,96% no mês, que acumulou 4,76% nesses primeiros sete meses de 2021, ano em que a meta oficial é de 3,75% (com 1,5% de margem de tolerância). E foram de nada menos que 8,99% em 12 meses. 

É verdade que agora temos a bandeira vermelha patamar 2 nas tarifas de energia elétrica, que contribuiu para o avanço de 7,9% da conta de luz em julho. É mais uma pancada que pressiona o custo de vida e o orçamento familiar do brasileiro médio neste ano.

Os outros fatores que concorreram para a esticada da inflação são mais ou menos conhecidos: foi a alta dos alimentos puxada, ao mesmo tempo, pela disparada das cotações das commodities, pela seca que assola o Centro-Sul do Brasil e, a partir de julho, pelo frio intenso que prejudicou pastagens e plantações.

Inflação
A gasolina subiu 39,6% nos 12 meses encerrados em julho e 27,5% nos sete primeiros meses do ano. Foto: Paulo Liebert/Estadão

Não foi desprezível o avanço dos preços dos derivados de petróleo (alta de 27,5% na gasolina e 25,7% no óleo diesel em 2021); o avanço de 20,8% no preço do gás de cozinha de janeiro a julho; a escassez de insumos e de matérias-primas da indústria, provocada pela retomada da atividade econômica; e o aumento da demanda que se seguiu ao avanço da vacinação contra a covid-19.

Pode-se acrescentar que a abundância de um volume nunca visto de recursos despejados pelos Tesouros nacionais (recursos fiscais) e pelos bancos centrais lubrificou o crédito nos mercados e empurrou às compras o consumidor que antes andava retraído.

Mas a maioria desses fatores altistas não atingiu apenas o Brasil. Praticamente todas as economias vêm pagando o preço do retorno praticamente simultâneo do isolamento social. E, no entanto, a inflação por aqui vem atingindo proporções elevadas, mesmo enfrentando forte quebra de renda e um desemprego de 14,6% da força de trabalho, circunstância que deveria manter a demanda contraída. A tabela abaixo mostra como vem se comportando a inflação em outras economias.

Quem contava com a queda estrutural da inflação no Brasil a partir desta década está surpreendido agora com essa recaída. Velhos mecanismos inerciais (a cultura de reajustes mais ou menos automáticos, por exemplo) voltaram a atuar.

Esse não é o único fator que surpreende nessa volta. Também surpreendeu a passividade do Banco Central diante da virulência da alta, pelo menos até a última reunião do Copom.

O Banco Central errou no diagnóstico por ter entendido que a maioria dos causadores da inflação era temporária e que, pelo encolhimento do mercado consumidor, logo seria revertida. Errou por ter subestimado o impacto do avanço dos preços no atacado sobre o custo de vida, o mesmo que atirou a variação do IGP-M para os 33,8% em 12 meses. Errou, também, por não ter dado a devida importância à deterioração das contas públicas e ao choque provocado nos níveis de confiança. E errou por ter perdido capacidade de ancorar as expectativas dos fazedores de preços. Por isso, foi obrigado a correr atrás e a redobrar a dose do aperto monetário (política de juros) que agora foi para uma Selic de 5,25% ao ano, que, no entanto, deverá chegar em dezembro à altura dos 7%.

Enfim, a grama não nasce do mesmo jeito nos carreiros do gado em direção ao bebedouro e velhos hábitos continuam minando o equilíbrio. O mais prejudicado desse processo de perda de valor da moeda é o trabalhador de poder aquisitivo mais baixo, que não consegue se defender contra a corrosão de sua renda.

*CELSO MING É COMENTARISTA DE ECONOMIA

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